China's June Exports Surge 27% YoY, AI Demand Drives Trade Upward

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14, 2026, shows that export value in June rose 27% year-on-year, accelerating from the 19.4% growth in May and exceeding economists' previous expectations. Imports in the same period increased 36% year-on-year, higher than the 27.4% growth rate in May. Some analysts attribute the expansion in import value to the conflict in Iran pushing up import costs. China's trade surplus in June reached $125.6 billion, widening from $105.4 billion in the previous month.

At a press conference in Beijing, Wang Jun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, revealed that import and export of AI-related products are showing strong growth momentum. In the first half of the year, trade value of computing hardware such as electronic components and computer parts surged nearly 57% year-on-year, reaching a total of 5.1 trillion yuan. The trade scale of smart products like AI glasses, AI translation devices, and powered exoskeletons also expanded simultaneously.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China Economics at Capital Economics, mentioned in a research report that the significant surge in trade value in June primarily reflects the rapid rise in semiconductor prices driven by the AI boom. Even excluding this factor, overseas demand for Chinese goods remains robust. Besides AI-related products, exports of technology products, especially automobiles and new energy vehicles, also maintained rapid growth. The positive performance of export manufacturing has offset the impact of weak domestic consumption and investment caused by the prolonged downturn in the real estate sector.

Overall trade data for the first half of the year shows that exports increased 17.6% year-on-year, while imports rose 26.6%. By region, exports to ASEAN in June grew nearly 35% year-on-year, exports to the EU and Latin America increased by over 18% and 28% respectively, and exports to the United States rose nearly 14% year-on-year. The recent consecutive months of export growth to the US are partly due to a low base in the same period last year, following the implementation of higher tariff policies after Donald Trump's re-election last year. To circumvent trade barriers such as high tariffs, Chinese companies have gradually shifted production capacity to regions like Europe while expanding exports to Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

Wang Jun also noted that foreign trade still faces relatively severe risks and challenges in the second half of the year. Li Wei, Head of Multi-Asset Investment at BNP Paribas Securities (China), mentioned in an analysis that the vulnerability of China's export growth will gradually become apparent going forward. The export performance of automobiles and AI-related products will still depend on changes in global demand and regulatory barriers set by various regions.

China will release its second-quarter economic growth data on July 16. The official annual growth target set for this year is between 4.5% and 5%, slightly lower than the 5% growth rate in 2025. Last week, the International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for China this year by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, while projecting China's economic growth at 4.1% for 2027. Policymakers have already introduced multiple measures, including subsidies for replacing old automobiles and home appliances, to stimulate consumption. However, affected by the economic slowdown, many residents still tend to avoid significant consumption expenditures.