TikTok Shop Projected to Reach $1 Trillion in Sales, Poised to Rank Among World's Top Three Retailers

Ebrun Exclusive: On February 27, a recent report released by the commercial institution Flywheel indicates that TikTok Shop is expected to rank among the top three global retailers across all product categories by 2030. The report projects the platform's annual sales could reach approximately $1 trillion, capturing a 14.6% share of the global e-commerce market.

According to Flywheel's calculations, this scale would position TikTok Shop at the forefront of the global retail second tier, second only to Amazon.

The report forecasts Amazon's sales to reach $1.1 trillion by 2030, maintaining its top position, with PDD Holdings ranking second. Notably, under this ranking system, Walmart, currently the world's largest retailer, may drop to fifth place, becoming the only company among the top five still primarily reliant on physical store sales.

If these predictions materialize, it would signify a profound structural shift: TikTok Shop would no longer be merely a social media product with shopping functionality, but would compete as a global retailer, directly challenging traditional e-commerce giants and comprehensive retail groups.

This long-term forecast is already supported by interim data.

In the third quarter of 2025, TikTok Shop's global Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reached approximately $19 billion. The US market contributed about $4.5 billion, making it the platform's largest single market currently. For comparison, eBay's GMV during the same period was $20.1 billion, meaning TikTok Shop's quarterly transaction volume is already approaching that of this nearly three-decade-old e-commerce platform.

Merchant expansion also reflects the platform's robust growth rate.

TikTok Shop currently operates in 17 countries, with approximately 15 million global sellers. In the US market, the number of registered merchants has grown by approximately 5000% since 2023, rapidly increasing from an initial few thousand to about 475,000 stores by mid-2025. The expansion of the merchant base has driven diversification in product supply, further enhancing the platform's appeal to consumers.

As traffic continues to rise, an increasing number of content creators are participating in sales through affiliate links and shoppable videos, achieving deep integration of content and transactions.

In terms of category structure, beauty remains TikTok Shop's core growth engine. Brands like Medicube, Tarte Cosmetics, and WavyTalk rank high on the best-seller lists. Meanwhile, categories such as health and wellness, home goods, and women's apparel are also expanding rapidly, promoting a more diversified transaction structure for the platform.

Notably, TikTok Shop has begun venturing into the luxury resale sector. Products from brands like Hermès, Chanel, and Rolex have appeared on the platform, with transactions conducted using AI authentication and live streaming sales models. This trend indicates the platform is gradually evolving from a social commerce model primarily focused on low-price impulse purchases towards categories with higher average order values and greater trust requirements.

Regarding its traffic foundation, TikTok consistently reports over 1 billion global monthly active users, providing a natural distribution advantage for its e-commerce business. Unlike standalone e-commerce marketplaces that rely heavily on paid traffic for user acquisition, TikTok leverages its content ecosystem and algorithm recommendation mechanism to achieve a closed-loop conversion of content, traffic, and transactions.

In terms of revenue structure, TikTok's advertising business has maintained significant growth in recent years, supporting the overall commercialization of its parent company, ByteDance. Although ByteDance has not separately disclosed TikTok Shop's revenue data, estimates from third-party institutions and quarterly GMV trends indicate that the e-commerce business is gradually becoming a core growth pillar within its global ecosystem.

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