Momentum Works: TikTok Shop's Parcel Volume in Southeast Asia Surpasses Shopee for the First Time

According to a recent research report released by Singapore-based venture capital and tech consultancy Momentum Works, TikTok Shop's rapid expansion in Southeast Asia has substantially impacted key operational metrics such as parcel delivery volume, intensifying regional e-commerce competition in 2025.

The report states that in the fourth quarter of 2025, major third-party logistics provider J&T Express delivered an average of 26.5 million parcels per day in Southeast Asia, a 73.6% year-on-year increase, with the growth primarily driven by TikTok Shop-related deliveries. Momentum Works cited internal estimates from J&T Express indicating that TikTok Shop currently generates more orders than Shopee. In an analysis dated January 20, 2026, the Momentum Works team noted that, based on J&T's assessment, the number of parcels handled for TikTok Shop is approximately 18% higher than those for Shopee's own logistics arm, SPX Express, and this gap continues to widen.

This assessment is supported by field research.

Observations by the Momentum Works team at multiple parcel pickup points in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, revealed a near balance in the number of packages from Shopee (primarily shipped via SPX) and TikTok Shop (mainly handled by J&T). The shipping structure observed across various locations was highly consistent, indicating that competition between the two platforms has entered a head-to-head phase in terms of fulfillment.

In terms of transaction volume, Momentum Works projects that TikTok Shop will achieve significant growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) in 2025, though its overall scale remains smaller than Shopee's. The report also notes that while the gap is narrowing, Shopee still maintains a leading position in total orders and parcel volume across Southeast Asia.

Based on these developments, Momentum Works made two key predictions in its "2026 Southeast Asia Outlook Report": first, TikTok Shop's parcel delivery volume is expected to reach parity with Shopee this year; second, Shopee is likely to strengthen its defensive strategy by allocating more resources to services that directly enhance user experience, such as instant delivery.

Momentum Works believes that the core dynamics of Southeast Asia's e-commerce competition have significantly shifted from several years ago. The industry's focus is no longer centered on price subsidies or large-scale promotions but has shifted toward operational efficiency, execution capabilities, and sustainable growth. The report emphasizes that competitive pressure now stems more from internal challenges, stating that "managers, operations teams, and executives must strike a balance between efficiency and scale."

Further analysis suggests that Shopee has yet to break through in the "closed-loop conversion system" that deeply integrates content, entertainment, and transactions—a core strength of TikTok Shop.

Consequently, Shopee is more likely to compete by enhancing consumer-facing value propositions, such as improving delivery speed and optimizing fulfillment cost structures. In this context, competition among Southeast Asian e-commerce platforms is evolving from a battle over traffic and subsidies to a systematic contest of long-term operational capabilities.

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